Will Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Trump’s Tuesday 8pm ET ultimatum?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsGeopoliticsMiddle EastManifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No (99%)
Resolved: Aug 10, 2026, 4:35 PM
Provider-verified resolution
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Current community forecastNo 99%
Forecasters
26
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 days ago
StaleAug 4, 26, 1:44 PMAug 10, 26, 4:35 PM
Probability Timeline
Yes1%
No99%
99%
1%
Rules
Market context: Bloomberg reported that President Trump gave Iran an ultimatum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday at 8:00 p.m.
- The market is not about whether the Bloomberg story is real; it is about whether Iran actually complies with the ultimatum by reopening the strait before the deadline.
- Bloomberg’s reporting framed the demand as reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ensuring freedom of navigation, so the market should resolve only on a clear, reported reopening or formal agreement to reopen.
- Resolution criteria: YES if, by 8:00 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Bloomberg reports that Iran has reopened the Strait of Hormuz or has formally agreed to reopen it in accordance with Trump’s ultimatum.
