Will Hawaii Question 2 (county RISE infrastructure bonds) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?
PoliticsOne-OffBonds & TreasuriesUS PoliticsElection9d
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 76.5%
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1
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Updated 14 hours ago
StaleOct 6, 26, 6:40 AM UTCNov 4, 26, 12:00 PM UTC
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KalshiRules
This market resolves YES if Hawaii Question 2 (Directing the Hawaii State Legislature to Establish Procedures for Counties to Issue RISE Bonds, Exempt from County Debt Limits.) is approved by voters at the November 3, 2026 general election under its official approval rule:
- Majority of votes tallied on the question AND yes votes ≥50% of all ballots cast at the election (Haw.
- XVII §3; blank/over votes effectively count against).
- Turnout-style rule: yes votes must be at least 50% of total ballots cast in the general election, not just of votes on the question.
- Only the November 3, 2026 vote counts; earlier votes on similar proposals do not.
- YES means voter approval at this election, not that the measure is later implemented.