Current community forecast
Yes 74.8%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 23 hours ago
StaleJan 13, 24, 4:00 AM UTCJan 13, 28, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2026, according to Berkeley Earth?
Manifold MarketsWill global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2029, according to Berkeley Earth?
Manifold MarketsWill global warming be 2 °Celsius or higher in 2027, according to Berkeley Earth?
Manifold MarketsHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
KalshiHow many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
PolymarketMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
PolymarketRules
Berkeley Earth releases a Global Temperature Report each January that includes the previous year's global annual average temperature according to their data.
- For 2023, Berkeley Earth reported global warming was 1.54 °C. This question resolves YES if Berkeley Earth reports that annual average warming is equal to or higher than 1.50 degrees Celsius in 2027.
- For easy reference, here are Berkeley Earth's past numbers going back to 2010:
- [image]Same question but for:
Open markets
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+2 more outcomes
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+5 more outcomes
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- December 314%
- September 30-0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 more outcomes
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- Before 2035+13.0pt58%
- Before 203248%
- Before 2030-19.0pt44%
+1 more outcomes
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KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0+4.0pt49%
- Above 1-2.0pt18%
- Above 2-6.0pt8%
+5 more outcomes
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KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.7pt3%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $3.4K
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- 8.0 magnitude earthquake in Japan before 2030?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2027, according to Berkeley Earth??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 75% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2027, according to Berkeley Earth? resolve?
- Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2027, according to Berkeley Earth? is scheduled to resolve on January 13, 2028.
- How is Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2027, according to Berkeley Earth? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Berkeley Earth releases a Global Temperature Report each January that includes the previous year's global annual average temperature according to their data.