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Yes 90.8%
Yes 90.8%Forecasters
18
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJan 13, 24, 4:00 AM UTCJan 13, 28, 7:59 AM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will global warming be 2 °Celsius or higher in 2028, according to Berkeley Earth?
Manifold MarketsWill global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2026, according to Berkeley Earth?
Manifold MarketsWill global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2029, according to Berkeley Earth?
Manifold MarketsWill global warming be 2 °Celsius or higher in any year before 2030, according to Berkeley Earth?
Manifold MarketsWill there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
KalshiWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PolymarketRules
Berkeley Earth releases a Global Temperature Report each January that includes the previous year's global annual average temperature according to their data.
- For 2023, Berkeley Earth reported global warming was 1.54 °C. This question resolves YES if Berkeley Earth reports that annual average warming is equal to or higher than 1.50 degrees Celsius in 2027.
- For easy reference, here are Berkeley Earth's past numbers going back to 2010:
- [image]Same question but for: