Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 76.8%
Forecasters
21
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleJan 13, 24, 4:02 AM UTCJan 13, 30, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will global warming be 2 °Celsius or higher in any year before 2030, according to Berkeley Earth?
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Manifold MarketsWill global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2026, according to Berkeley Earth?
Manifold MarketsWill global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2027, according to Berkeley Earth?
Manifold MarketsWhere will it rain on Oct 30, 2026?
KalshiHighest temperature in Wellington on October 30?
PolymarketRules
Berkeley Earth releases a Global Temperature Report each January that includes the previous year's global annual average temperature according to their data.
- For 2023, Berkeley Earth reported global warming was 1.54 °C. This question resolves YES if Berkeley Earth reports that annual average warming is equal to or higher than 1.50 degrees Celsius in 2029.
- For easy reference, here are Berkeley Earth's past numbers going back to 2010:
- [image]Same question but for: