Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 76.8%
Forecasters
21
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 22 hours ago
StaleJan 13, 24, 4:02 AM UTCJan 13, 30, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will global warming be 2 °Celsius or higher in any year before 2030, according to Berkeley Earth?
Manifold MarketsWill global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2027, according to Berkeley Earth?
Manifold MarketsWill global warming be 2 °Celsius or higher in 2027, according to Berkeley Earth?
Manifold MarketsWill global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2026, according to Berkeley Earth?
Manifold MarketsRules
Berkeley Earth releases a Global Temperature Report each January that includes the previous year's global annual average temperature according to their data.
- For 2023, Berkeley Earth reported global warming was 1.54 °C. This question resolves YES if Berkeley Earth reports that annual average warming is equal to or higher than 1.50 degrees Celsius in 2029.
- For easy reference, here are Berkeley Earth's past numbers going back to 2010:
- [image]Same question but for:
Open markets
Weather
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 9, 2026?
- 93° or above87.6%
- 91° to 92°7.6%
- 89° to 90°1.9%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $83.9K
- 24h Vol
- $83.5K
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 9, 2026?
- Miami+44.0pt99%
- Chicago+13.0pt99%
- Houston73%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $85.5K
KALSHIHighest temperature in Miami on Sep 9, 2026?
- 91° to 92°57.8%
- 89° to 90°25.5%
- 93° to 94°8.8%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $30.9K
- 24h Vol
- $30.8K
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 9, 2026?
- 83° or below48.1%
- 84° to 85°43.3%
- 86° to 87°5.8%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $29.9K
- 24h Vol
- $29.6K
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Shanghai on September 10?
- 28°C-2.5pt44.3%
- 29°C+7.5pt26.4%
- 27°C-3.5pt20.8%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in London on September 10?
- 21°C+8.0pt48.1%
- 20°C+12.0pt34%
- 22°C-13.0pt10.4%
+8 more outcomes
- Highest temperature in San Francisco on Sep 9, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on September 10?
- Highest temperature in Miami on September 10?
- Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026?
- Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 10?
- Highest temperature in Paris on September 10?
- Highest temperature in Chongqing on September 10?
- Highest temperature in Wellington on September 10?
- Highest temperature in Beijing on September 10?
- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 9, 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2029, according to Berkeley Earth??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 77% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2029, according to Berkeley Earth? resolve?
- Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2029, according to Berkeley Earth? is scheduled to resolve on January 13, 2030.
- How is Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2029, according to Berkeley Earth? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Berkeley Earth releases a Global Temperature Report each January that includes the previous year's global annual average temperature according to their data.