KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.
Awaiting verified resolution
CoinRithm is waiting for provider-confirmed settlement before treating this market as resolved.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Nov 2, 2026, 5:50 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current implied probability
42° to 43° 90%+68.0ptLeader of 6 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
42° to 43° 90%+68.0ptMarket quality
46 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$105.6K
Open interest
$58.3K
High open interestMarket data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingOct 31, 26, 2:00 PM UTCNov 2, 26, 6:00 AM UTC
Trends
42° to 43°90%
44° to 45°4.5%
40° to 41°2.7%
46° to 47°0.9%
48° or above0.9%
39° or below0.9%
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PolymarketRules
This outcome's exact rule is not available.
Settles via:The Weather Company
- Not all weather data is the same. While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the maximum/minimum temperature as reported by the Weather Company. Reading weather data Preliminary Weather Company data may be subject to rounding and conversion differences from the final reported value. Use caution when interpreting preliminary Weather Company readings. If it is determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange that there is a material error in the initial non-preliminary publication, Expiration may be held until the publication of a non-materially-erroneous data revision or until the Expiration Date, whichever comes first. If no data is available at the end of this period, all markets will resolve to the last fair price determined by Kalshi. Please note, a status of "Final" on weather.com/kalshi is provided for convenience only, and does not guarantee data to be error-free and thus exempt from the above.
Rules for each outcome
- 42° to 43°
- If the minimum temperature recorded at New York City (CLINYC) for Nov 1, 2026, is between 42-43° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 44° to 45°
- If the minimum temperature recorded at New York City (CLINYC) for Nov 1, 2026, is between 44-45° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 40° to 41°
- If the minimum temperature recorded at New York City (CLINYC) for Nov 1, 2026, is between 40-41° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 46° to 47°
- If the minimum temperature recorded at New York City (CLINYC) for Nov 1, 2026, is between 46-47° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 48° or above
- If the minimum temperature recorded at New York City (CLINYC) for Nov 1, 2026, is greater than 47° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 39° or below
- If the minimum temperature recorded at New York City (CLINYC) for Nov 1, 2026, is less than 40° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.