Will global warming be 2 °Celsius or higher in any year before 2030, according to Berkeley Earth?
One-OffWeather3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 89.3%
Forecasters
27
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleJan 13, 24, 5:42 PM UTCJan 13, 30, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 9, 2026?
KalshiWhere will it rain on Sep 9, 2026?
KalshiHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 9, 2026?
KalshiRules
Berkeley Earth releases a Global Temperature Report each January that includes the previous year's global annual average temperature according to their data.
- For 2023, Berkeley Earth reported global warming was 1.54 °C. This question resolves YES if Berkeley Earth reports that annual average warming is equal to or higher than 2.00 degrees Celsius for any year before 2030 (i.e. 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, or 2029).
Open markets
WeatherKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 9, 2026?
- 93° or above87.6%
- 91° to 92°7.6%
- 89° to 90°1.9%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $83.9K
- 24h Vol
- $83.5K
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 9, 2026?
- Miami+44.0pt99%
- Chicago+13.0pt99%
- Houston73%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $85.5K
KALSHIHighest temperature in Miami on Sep 9, 2026?
- 91° to 92°57.8%
- 89° to 90°25.5%
- 93° to 94°8.8%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $30.9K
- 24h Vol
- $30.8K
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 9, 2026?
- 83° or below48.1%
- 84° to 85°43.3%
- 86° to 87°5.8%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $29.9K
- 24h Vol
- $29.6K
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Shanghai on September 10?
- 28°C-2.5pt44.3%
- 29°C+7.5pt26.4%
- 27°C-3.5pt20.8%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in London on September 10?
- 21°C+8.0pt48.1%
- 20°C+12.0pt34%
- 22°C-13.0pt10.4%
+8 more outcomes
- Highest temperature in San Francisco on Sep 9, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on September 10?
- Highest temperature in Miami on September 10?
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- Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 10?
- Highest temperature in Paris on September 10?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will global warming be 2 °Celsius or higher in any year before 2030, according to Berkeley Earth??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 89% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will global warming be 2 °Celsius or higher in any year before 2030, according to Berkeley Earth? resolve?
- Will global warming be 2 °Celsius or higher in any year before 2030, according to Berkeley Earth? is scheduled to resolve on January 13, 2030.
- How is Will global warming be 2 °Celsius or higher in any year before 2030, according to Berkeley Earth? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Berkeley Earth releases a Global Temperature Report each January that includes the previous year's global annual average temperature according to their data.