Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 30, 2026, 4:50 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 82.6%
Forecasters
26
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated yesterday
StaleJan 25, 26, 8:06 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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LimitlessRules
Germany holds the world’s second-largest national gold reserves after the United States, with approximately $194B worth — 1,236 metric tons—currently stored at the Federal Reserve in New York.
- Several German economists have deemed it risky to store so much gold in the US, given the current geopolitical situation, and advise to repatriate the gold.
- This market resolves based on the percentage of Germany's gold that is repatriated to Germany during Trump's second term.
- The market resolves YES if 100% of the gold is repatriated, NO if 0% is repatriated, and to the specific percentage for any amount between 0-100%.
