Current community forecast
No 98.7%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Sep 21, 26, 8:43 PM UTCOct 13, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by which date?
PolymarketWill Chancellor Merz announce a German defense spending increase to 3.0% of GDP by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Merz be German chancellor on Jan 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Hendrik Wüst succeed Friedrich Merz as the leader of the CDU?
Manifold MarketsWho replaces Merz as Chancellor if he gets replaced before the next German federal election?
Manifold MarketsNext Chancellor of Germany before 2028?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.