Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 80.2%
Forecasters
28
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingApr 18, 25, 3:44 PM UTCDec 31, 32, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins a seat in Congress in 2026
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KalshiRules
Elon used to vote democrat, post stuff about his support for LGBT people, and was a hero of the climate movement.
- That is... no longer the case.
- But maybe it will be once again?
- Resolves based on my judgement of the vibes.
- Simply becoming more critical of the Trump admin would not be sufficient, he has to firmly be left-coded.
- Update 2025-07-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Joining or supporting the America Party will not be sufficient for a YES resolution.
