Will Donald Trump have been the Republican nominee in every presidential election from 2016 until his death?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection13y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 82.1%
Forecasters
283
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleMay 24, 23, 10:25 PM UTCJan 1, 40, 7:00 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
This market resolves as YES if Donald Trump, between 2016 and his death, is the Republican nominee in every presidential election.
- Otherwise, it resolves as NO.
- More specifically:
- This market resolves as YES if Donald Trump dies between May of 2023 and the 2024 Republican National Convention.
- This market resolves as YES if Donald Trump is selected as the Republican presidential nominee at the Republican National Convention in 2024 and dies before the 2028 Republican National Convention; the same holds for following election cycles, e.g. being the nominee in 2028 and dying before the 2032 RNC, etc. This market resolves as YES if the Republican Party ceases to exist, and Donald Trump was the nominee in every election from 2016 until the party's dissolution.
