Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 98%
Forecasters
33
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleDec 18, 25, 8:26 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 8:25 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- Donald Trump was sworn in as the 47th President of the United States on Monday, January 20, 2025.
- This market resolves YES if Trump remains president through December 31, 2026.
- It resolves NO if he is no longer serving as president by that date, including through resignation, removal via the 25th Amendment, impeachment and conviction, or any other means of losing the office.
- Resolution will be determined by checking the official White House website (whitehouse.gov) or major news sources confirming the sitting president on December 31, 2026.
- Trump previously served as the 45th President from 2017 to 2021, making him the second President in American history to serve two nonconsecutive terms.
