Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastJan 1, 2025 100%Leader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
55
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleApr 2, 24, 12:55 PM UTCJan 2, 30, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
100%
100%
100%
100%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will China still be a communist country on the following dates
Manifold MarketsCuba still a one-party state at the end of 2026?
FutuurCommunist regime collapse in Cuba before January 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsRegime change in Cuba by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
PolymarketMiguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by which date?
PolymarketRules
Using Wikipedia’s characterization of the government type to resolve: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cuba
- For clarity, communist in this case means Marxist-Lennist: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_socialist_states
- Each year will resolve individually, so if the government changes form in 2026 and then stays the same from there on out, the both the named outcome and the following years will resolve as NO.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Cuba still be a communist country on the following dates?
- Manifold Markets prices Jan 1, 2025 at 100% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Cuba still be a communist country on the following dates resolve?
- Will Cuba still be a communist country on the following dates is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2030.
- How is Will Cuba still be a communist country on the following dates settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Using Wikipedia’s characterization of the government type to resolve: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cuba