Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastby Jan 1, 2025 100%Leader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
21
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleApr 14, 24, 10:46 PM UTCJan 2, 40, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
100%
100%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
PolymarketWill Xi Jinping visit US by which date?
PolymarketRules
Will resolve based on the ruling party on the China wikipedia page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China
- As we go, I'll resolve / add additional dates to keep it interesting.
Open markets
ChinaPOLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $110.1K
POLYMARKETXi Jinping out before 2027?
- No+0.2pt96%
- Yes-0.2pt4%
- Total Vol
- $13.1M
- 24h Vol
- $41.2K
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Beijing on September 9?
- 26°C-0.5pt50%
- 27°C+8.5pt27.4%
- 25°C-7.0pt15.7%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- No-0.5pt72.3%
- Yes+0.5pt27.7%
- Total Vol
- $414.1K
- 24h Vol
- $15.5K
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
- No+1.0pt89.1%
- Yes-1.0pt10.9%
- Total Vol
- $3.1M
- 24h Vol
- $13.8K
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba+4.5pt71.3%
- Moonshot-3.2pt26.7%
- Z.ai-0.8pt1%
+8 more outcomes
- Will Xi Jinping visit US by which date?
- Top Chinese AI Company week of September 14th
- Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
- How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
- Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
- Will Xi Jinping visit the United States?
- Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Beijing on September 10?
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will China still be a communist country on the following dates?
- Manifold Markets prices by Jan 1, 2025 at 100% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will China still be a communist country on the following dates resolve?
- Will China still be a communist country on the following dates is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2040.
- How is Will China still be a communist country on the following dates settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Will resolve based on the ruling party on the China wikipedia page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China