Will any of these unhinged conspiracy theories turn out to be true by 2040?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection13y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
imports of luxury vehicles have increased to Ukraine. Even many Rolex sellers in Kyiv 16.6%Leader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
44
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 23 hours ago
StaleNov 13, 24, 11:56 PM UTCJan 1, 40, 11:59 PM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
I plan to add to this market, and others are welcome to also.
- I’m often browsing twitter and go down a rabbit hole of tweets that seem completely insane and blatantly based on misinformation of an unknown source.
- It would be great if this became a repository for people to post the most insane unhinged tweets you’ve seen in the comments and add it to the market so we can all bet on it.
- Very, and I need to stress this, extremely rarely have one or two (out of thousands) turned out to be true or partially true.
- The resolution of theories on this market should be generous - if the general accusation, “secret information” or whatever else is true/ real in the sense that it being the case was unfathomable to most people with healthy minds, it will resolve as yes.
- These theories are generally posted by people who already struggle with basic grammar and critical thought, so giving them the benefit of the doubt as to the precise specifics is I think, reasonable.