Current community forecast
No 84.6%
Forecasters
59
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleApr 8, 23, 5:49 AM UTCJan 1, 30, 8:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Any US president (current or former) is assassinated before 2030?
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FutuurRules
The death must take place after market creation and before market close.
Open markets
Politics
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.3pt18%
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Gavin Newsom-0.7pt15%
+48 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3B
- 24h Vol
- $2.4M
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance51%
- Marco Rubio+0.3pt16%
- Ron DeSantis-0.1pt3%
+39 more outcomes
POLYMARKETVenezuela leader end of 2026?
- Nicolás Maduro-32.1pt53.6%
- Delcy Rodríguez+31.5pt45.4%
- No Head of State-0.3pt1%
+13 more outcomes
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+1.5pt90.1%
- Republican Party-1.3pt9.9%
- Total Vol
- $33.5M
- 24h Vol
- $713.5K
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt94%
- Yes-2.0pt6%
- Total Vol
- $22.5M
- 24h Vol
- $562K
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.7%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16.7%
- Gavin Newsom-1.0pt13.5%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $221.6M
- 24h Vol
- $464.3K
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- What will Trump say this week?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Los Angeles Mayor winner?
- Brazil Presidential Election
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Next French Presidential Election
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will any current or former president of the United States be assassinated before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 85% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does Will any current or former president of the United States be assassinated before 2030? resolve?
- Will any current or former president of the United States be assassinated before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
- How is Will any current or former president of the United States be assassinated before 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The death must take place after market creation and before market close.