Will an openly gay man become president of the United States before a woman becomes president?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection16y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 79.8%
Forecasters
25
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 minutes ago
Jun 25, 24, 2:31 AM UTCJan 21, 43, 6:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
The close date is arbitrary; either I or a moderator will extend the close date as needed until either of the criteria have been met or the office of President of the United States is abolished.
- For purposes of this market, "openly gay man" and "woman" describe someone who identifies as a such at the time of the respective event.
- If an individual became President of the United States and then only later identified as an "openly gay man" or "woman" after leaving the Presidency, then that would not satisfy the criteria (unless they were to regain the presidency).
- I will not bet in this market.
- @/jks/will-a-woman-walk-on-mars-before-a
