Will an apocalypse cult attack a civilian or military target in Taiwan before 2031?
GeopoliticsOne-OffChina4yManifold MarketsNo KYCCurrent community forecastYes 32.3%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 22 days ago
StaleMar 2, 25, 12:09 AMJan 1, 31, 10:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes32%
Related Markets
Will Xi JingPing and Kim Jong-un meet in person in year 2026?
$216Yes: 90.2%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by...?
$212December 31: 12%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
China ballistic missile launch by December 31?
$205Yes: 16%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Hot war between the US and China by the end of 2026?
$127.5Yes: 7%FUTUUR
FUTUUR
Jimmy Lai released by...?
$0December 31,: 5%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETChina to try to take Taiwan using military force by the end of 2026?
$1.6KYes: 1%FUTUUR
FUTUURActive in these topics
Related News
Iran war shifts tourism, Polymarket trims China-Taiwan invasion odds to 4.25%Blockchain.News
Iran control stance hits Hormuz outlook as Polymarket Yes slips to 30.5%Blockchain.News
US strikes Iran as Polymarket odds peg Starmer exit before 2027 at 90.5%Blockchain.News
Katz warns force vs Iran as Polymarket puts Dec 2026 US-Iran deal at 43.5%Blockchain.News
Reports of US strikes in Iran push Polymarket regime-fall odds to 0.15%Blockchain.News
US strikes in Iran shift Polymarket travel bets, Trump down to 15%Blockchain.NewsRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.