Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataCurrent community forecastNo 71%
Forecasters
32
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleNov 20, 24, 1:09 PM UTCJan 1, 31, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
As our collective memory of the devastation and fear of nuclear war recedes the risks of a nation using these weapons feels more tangible.
- Global tensions are increasing worldwide with nuclear powered and nuclear-backed nations only serving to make the threat of a nuclear attack more likely.
- Will the tension break this decade or will we survive another 5 years without witnessing the horrific devastation that leveled Hiroshima and Nagasaki?
- edit: revised question to “will there be a nuclear strike” rather than nuclear detonation.
- This market will resolve to true for any nuclear strike on a civilian or military target even if it is a single bomb without retaliation.
- This market will also resolve true if there is an attempted nuclear strike that does not detonate (as in the bomb is launched but fails to detonate because of interception or malfunction).