Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 73.5%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleMar 7, 25, 12:21 AM UTCJan 1, 31, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will an apocalypse cult attack a civilian or military target in Taiwan before 2031?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a trend spike for the term "apocalypse cult" before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Crowder talk about an assassination attempt or attack on his show by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Hasan piker talk about an assassination attempt or attack on himself on stream by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsTrump out as President before 2027?
PolymarketIlhan Omar federally charged by which date?
PolymarketRules
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that an apocalypse cult has tried to attack a TSMC facility before January 1st 2031.
