Current community forecast
No 59%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 20 hours ago
StaleDec 24, 24, 10:42 PM UTCJan 1, 40, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsBy 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution Criteria:
- The question will resolve to YES if at least one of the following occurs:
- The broader unemployment rate (U-6) reaches 50% or higher
- The labor force participation rate drops by 50% or more from its 2024 baseline of 62.5%.
- In this context the LFPR should fall to 31.3% or lower.
- This question is concerned with lost jobs and not the number of hours worked per week.
