Current community forecast
No 59%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 46 minutes ago
LaggingDec 24, 24, 10:42 PM UTCJan 1, 40, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsBy 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
Manifold MarketsWhat will happen in the world throughout the 2020s
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution Criteria:
- The question will resolve to YES if at least one of the following occurs:
- The broader unemployment rate (U-6) reaches 50% or higher
- The labor force participation rate drops by 50% or more from its 2024 baseline of 62.5%.
- In this context the LFPR should fall to 31.3% or lower.
- This question is concerned with lost jobs and not the number of hours worked per week.
