Current community forecast
Yes 55%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleJan 7, 25, 4:28 PM UTCJan 1, 50, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution Criteria:
- The question will resolve to YES if at least one of the following occurs:
- The broader unemployment rate (U-6) reaches 25% or higher
- The labor force participation rate drops by 25% or more from its 2024 baseline of 62.5%.
- In this context the LFPR should fall to 46.9% or lower.
- This question is concerned with lost jobs and not the number of hours worked per week.
