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Data as of Oct 22, 2026, 7:50 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
Yes 82.3%
Forecasters
24
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleAug 19, 23, 10:41 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Will AI have a significant impact on a national (general) election in an OECD country by 01-01-2028?
- Direct impacts:
- YES if noticeable change in voter behavior, voter perception and decision-making can be attributed to AI-driven factors.
- For example, if AI-generated content on social media leads to a substantial shift in voter preferences or turnout, this will be considered a significant impact.
- YES if AI played a decisive role in changing the outcome of the election.
- If AI-related factors, such as targeted advertising or deepfake videos, were determined to have directly influenced the election's result, this would be seen as a significant impact.
