Will a government mandate restrict access to an OpenAI or xAI model on security or safety grounds before 2027?
Trade PolicyOne-OffAIRussia / UkraineChinaEurope2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 6:50 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 91.1%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleJun 13, 26, 9:11 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria:
- This market resolves YES if, before January 1, 2027, OpenAI or xAI is legally required by a government body to restrict access to any general-purpose large language model (chat/completion model intended for broad use across many tasks, not a narrow fine-tune for a single domain, e.g. GPT-5.5-Cyber, GPT-Rosalind, etc.) on security or safety grounds, where the restriction reduces the population of users who can access the model relative to its prior or planned availability.
- This applies to both already-released models and models that were undergoing testing/pre-release at the time of the directive.
- National security is one possible basis for such a mandate, but the criteria are not limited to it — restrictions justified on grounds such as public safety, AI safety risk, cybersecurity risk, or similar government-stated rationales also qualify.
- This includes, but is not limited to, restrictions based on nationality/citizenship.
- Qualifying events include:
