Will OpenAI AND xAI have an IPO in 2026?
ExchangeAIOne-OffCorporate ActionsRegulationSpaceEquitiesTech3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 89.6%
Forecasters
29
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleJan 3, 26, 9:26 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if both OpenAI AND xAI complete initial public offerings (IPOs) and begin trading on a major U.S. stock exchange (NYSE or Nasdaq) on or before December 31, 2026.
- Resolution is based on official SEC filings and exchange announcements.
- The market resolves NO if either company fails to complete an IPO by the deadline.
- OpenAI was reportedly planning an IPO of up to $1 trillion as early as late 2026, though OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar said last month that a listing is "not in the near-term plan." OpenAI has been in early discussions with top law firms, including Cooley, about a potential public listing, and at least some capital could come via an initial public offering it is reportedly planning for as soon as the second half of 2026.
- For xAI, two xAI investors said a listing could occur as soon as late 2026 or the first half of 2027, though they acknowledged the timing is uncertain. xAI CEO Linda Yaccarino emphasized that it is still too early to discuss a timeline for an IPO, as xAI is only two years old.
Open markets
Exchange
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Atpmatch MUSO 26 Ftiaamic
- AMIC+38.0pt78.4%
- FTIA-37.0pt21.6%
- Total Vol
- $5.4M
- 24h Vol
- $5.4M
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 9pm EDT?
- $78,300 or above99%
- $78,100 or above99%
- $78,200 or above99%
+97 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $658.7K
- 24h Vol
- $637.4K
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Atpmatch MUSO 26 Bshecalc
- CALC76.7%
- BSHE+1.0pt23.3%
- Total Vol
- $534.5K
- 24h Vol
- $534.5K
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Jessica Pegula vs Emma Navarro Quarter Finals match
- Jessica Pegula76.8%
- Emma Navarro23.1%
- Total Vol
- $143.6K
- 24h Vol
- $499.1K
POLYMARKETBitcoin above ___ on September 9?
- 72,000+0.5pt100%
- 74,000+0.7pt100%
- 68,000+0.1pt100%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $69,000 or above99%
- $69,500 or above98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3M
- 24h Vol
- BTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Ethereum above ___ on September 9?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- Bitcoin above ___ on September 10?
- How high will BTC get in September?
- Wtamatch WUSO 26 Mandcgau
- Wtamatch WUSO 26 Qzheeryb
- BNB price range on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Bitcoin above ___ on September 11?
- What chain will LAPTOP launch on?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will OpenAI AND xAI have an IPO in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 90% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will OpenAI AND xAI have an IPO in 2026? resolve?
- Will OpenAI AND xAI have an IPO in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will OpenAI AND xAI have an IPO in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria