Will OpenAI AND xAI have an IPO in 2026?
ExchangeAIOne-OffCorporate ActionsRegulationSpaceEquitiesTech2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 95.1%
Forecasters
31
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 26 minutes ago
Jan 3, 26, 9:26 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if both OpenAI AND xAI complete initial public offerings (IPOs) and begin trading on a major U.S. stock exchange (NYSE or Nasdaq) on or before December 31, 2026.
- Resolution is based on official SEC filings and exchange announcements.
- The market resolves NO if either company fails to complete an IPO by the deadline.
- OpenAI was reportedly planning an IPO of up to $1 trillion as early as late 2026, though OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar said last month that a listing is "not in the near-term plan." OpenAI has been in early discussions with top law firms, including Cooley, about a potential public listing, and at least some capital could come via an initial public offering it is reportedly planning for as soon as the second half of 2026.
- For xAI, two xAI investors said a listing could occur as soon as late 2026 or the first half of 2027, though they acknowledged the timing is uncertain. xAI CEO Linda Yaccarino emphasized that it is still too early to discuss a timeline for an IPO, as xAI is only two years old.
