Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 6:50 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 70.1%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleJun 13, 26, 7:33 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketIf Trump wins, will the US government enact legislation that significantly slows down AI progress?
Manifold MarketsRules
Requires that the government through an official channel (e.g. not social media) implicitly or explicitly threatens legal action
- to make OAI restrict access to a model by otherwise unsanctioned persons or entities.
- An example of what woyld count is:
- https://www.anthropic.com/news/fable-mythos-access
- [link preview]