Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 70.1%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 20 hours ago
StaleJun 13, 26, 7:33 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Requires that the government through an official channel (e.g. not social media) implicitly or explicitly threatens legal action
- to make OAI restrict access to a model by otherwise unsanctioned persons or entities.
- An example of what woyld count is:
- https://www.anthropic.com/news/fable-mythos-access
- [link preview]