Will a Filipino, Chinese or US national be killed on or near the Second Thomas Shoal before 2027?
GeopoliticsOne-OffChina2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 51.2%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleOct 24, 23, 5:30 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 3:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
The Second Thomas Shoal is currently occupied by the Philippines but is claimed by multiple other states including China.
- Recently there have been several clashes between China and the Phillipines over the atoll.
- The US is a treaty ally of the Philippines.
- 'killed' requires an physical act, specifically from one of the other countries mentioned in the question.
- In other words it doesn't count if someone dies for any other reason or they die in a way where it could be reasonably deemed that their own country killed them).
- It would count if another country took some action that clearly led to a death, ie a ship was sunk and survivors were not rescued.
