Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 59%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleAug 11, 26, 1:35 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiWill the US pass a federal AI law before Dec 31, 2026?
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Manifold MarketsWill Nicolás Maduro be convicted in a U.S. federal court before January 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsOne-time layoff greater than Block (40% of employees) in tech?
KalshiRules
Resolves YES if: Before 12:00 AM ET January 1, 2027, any U.S. federal court issues an order enjoining enforcement of, or declaring unenforceable, in whole or in substantial part, at least one of these five statutes: (1) Colorado AI Act (SB 24-205, as amended/replaced by SB 26-189), (2) California SB 53 (Transparency in Frontier AI Act), (3) New York RAISE Act, (4) Texas TRAIGA, (5) Illinois HB 3773.
- • Counts: preliminary injunction, permanent injunction, TRO, or declaratory judgment of unconstitutionality/preemption, from any federal district or appellate court, in any case (xAI v.
- Weiser, a DOJ Task Force suit, or a new industry/trade-group suit).
- • “Substantial part” = the order blocks at least one core operative obligation (e.g., the algorithmic-discrimination duties, frontier transparency/reporting requirements), not merely a severable ancillary provision like a notice formatting rule.
- Resolver judgment on edge cases, stated in advance.
- • Does NOT count: stays pending appeal of a state’s own enforcement, voluntary non-enforcement agreements, state legislative repeal/delay, or rulings on standing/venue without merits relief.
Open markets
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $157.2K
- 24h Vol
- $119.4K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+10.0pt60%
- 2027+2.0pt31.4%
- 2026+2.0pt8.6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.7pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $377.7K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.5pt23%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a federal court block a major state AI law before 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 59% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a federal court block a major state AI law before 2027? resolve?
- Will a federal court block a major state AI law before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will a federal court block a major state AI law before 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if: Before 12:00 AM ET January 1, 2027, any U.S. federal court issues an order enjoining enforcement of, or declaring unenforceable, in whole or in substantial part, at least one of these five statutes: (1) Colorado AI Act (SB 24-205, as amended/replaced by SB 26-189), (2) California SB 53 (Transparency in Frontier AI Act), (3) New York RAISE Act, (4) Texas TRAIGA, (5) Illinois HB 3773.