Who will win the 2026 Oakland City Council District 2 election?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection13d
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNate Adams 50.8%Leader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
3
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+10.8 pts
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingOct 26, 26, 10:48 PM UTCNov 10, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the winner of the Oakland City Council District 2 election held on November 3, 2026.
- Resolution will be based on reputable media reporting and/or concession by the losing candidate(s), or finally by the results certified by the Alameda County Registrar of Voters or the City of Oakland's official election certification.
- If an unlisted candidate wins the election, the market will resolve to "Other" (or equivalent unlisted option).
- Oakland City Council District 2 includes neighborhoods surrounding Lake Merritt, Chinatown, and parts of East Oakland.
- Incumbent Councilmember the named outcome first won the seat in a 2025 special election to complete the remainder of Nikki Fortunato Bas's term after Bas was elected to the Alameda County Board of Supervisors.
