What are the current odds for Who will replace Graham Platner if he drops out??

Manifold Markets prices Troy Jackson at 99% as of July 31, 2026.

When does Who will replace Graham Platner if he drops out? resolve?

Who will replace Graham Platner if he drops out? is scheduled to resolve on July 30, 2026.

How is Who will replace Graham Platner if he drops out? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria

Who will replace Graham Platner if he drops out?

PoliticsOne-OffHealth & Medicine Election

Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

This market resolved: Troy Jackson (99%)

Resolved: Jul 30, 2026, 5:01 AM

Provider-verified resolution

CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.

Current community forecast

Troy Jackson 99%+1.0pt

Leader of 6 outcomes

Forecasters

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 21 days ago

Stale

Jul 7, 26, 11:41 AMJul 30, 26, 5:01 AM

Probability Timeline

Troy Jackson99%

Nirav Shah0.2%

Janet Mills0.2%

Sara Gideon0.2%

Shenna Bellows0.2%

No drop out0.1%

Troy Jackson

+1.0 pts

99%

Nirav Shah

-0.2 pts

0.2%

Janet Mills

-0.2 pts

0.2%

Sara Gideon

-0.2 pts

0.2%

Shenna Bellows

-0.2 pts

0.2%

No drop out

-0.1 pts

0.1%

Rules

Resolution criteria

This is a binary market.
Since the question asks "Who will replace...", the creator should edit this description to specify the name of the candidate they are betting on (for example, the named outcome, the named outcome, the named outcome, the named outcome, or the named outcome).
If the creator does not edit the description to specify a particular candidate, this market will default to resolving as follows:
YES: If Graham Platner officially withdraws from the Maine U.S. Senate race on or before the statutory deadline of July 13, 2026, and the Maine Democratic Party officially names any replacement candidate to the general election ballot by the July 27, 2026 deadline.

Who will replace Graham Platner if he drops out?

PoliticsOne-OffHealth & Medicine Election

Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

This market resolved: Troy Jackson (99%)

Resolved: Jul 30, 2026, 5:01 AM

Provider-verified resolution

CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.

Current community forecast

Troy Jackson 99%+1.0pt

Leader of 6 outcomes

Forecasters

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 21 days ago

Stale

Jul 7, 26, 11:41 AMJul 30, 26, 5:01 AM

Probability Timeline

Troy Jackson99%

Nirav Shah0.2%

Janet Mills0.2%

Sara Gideon0.2%

Shenna Bellows0.2%

No drop out0.1%

Troy Jackson

+1.0 pts

99%

Nirav Shah

-0.2 pts

0.2%

Janet Mills

-0.2 pts

0.2%

Sara Gideon

-0.2 pts

0.2%

Shenna Bellows

-0.2 pts

0.2%

No drop out

-0.1 pts

0.1%

Rules

Resolution criteria

This is a binary market.
Since the question asks "Who will replace...", the creator should edit this description to specify the name of the candidate they are betting on (for example, the named outcome, the named outcome, the named outcome, the named outcome, or the named outcome).
If the creator does not edit the description to specify a particular candidate, this market will default to resolving as follows:
YES: If Graham Platner officially withdraws from the Maine U.S. Senate race on or before the statutory deadline of July 13, 2026, and the Maine Democratic Party officially names any replacement candidate to the general election ballot by the July 27, 2026 deadline.

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Who will replace Graham Platner if he drops out??: Manifold Markets prices Troy Jackson at 99% as of July 31, 2026.
When does Who will replace Graham Platner if he drops out? resolve?: Who will replace Graham Platner if he drops out? is scheduled to resolve on July 30, 2026.
How is Who will replace Graham Platner if he drops out? settled?: Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria

Who will replace Graham Platner if he drops out?

Who will replace Graham Platner if he drops out?

Frequently asked questions

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