Who will be major candidates in the 2028 Democratic primaries?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Who will be major candidates in the 2028 Democratic primaries??

Manifold Markets prices Gavin Newsom at 86.8% as of October 20, 2026.

When does Who will be major candidates in the 2028 Democratic primaries? resolve?

Who will be major candidates in the 2028 Democratic primaries? is scheduled to resolve on June 2, 2028.

How is Who will be major candidates in the 2028 Democratic primaries? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: For the purposes of this market, a "major candidate" is defined as any candidate who, at any point during the race, had a polling average of at least 10%.

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KALSHI

2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?

• Democrats sweep63.5%
• D-House, R-Senate-1.0pt27.5%
• Republicans sweep-1.1pt9.9%

+1 more outcomes

Total Vol

$44M

24h Vol

$1.7M

KALSHI

2028 Democratic presidential nominee

• Gavin Newsom+1.0pt16.5%
• Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+1.0pt13.5%
• Jon Ossoff13.5%

KALSHI

Texas Senate winner?

• James Talarico+1.0pt62.5%
• Ken Paxton-1.0pt37.5%

Total Vol

$31.7M

24h Vol

$1.4M

KALSHI

Which party will win the U.S. House?

• Democratic Party+0.2pt90.3%
• Republican Party-1.2pt9.6%

Total Vol

$61.7M

24h Vol

$1.2M

POLYMARKET

Brazil Presidential Election

• Flávio Bolsonaro-0.3pt77%
• Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-1.0pt23%

+17 more outcomes

Total Vol

$188.8M

24h Vol

$834.2K

POLYMARKET

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

• Gadi Eizenkot+0.7pt48%
• Benjamin Netanyahu28%
• Naftali Bennett13%

+16 more outcomes

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