Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastJD Vance 74.9%Leader of 13 outcomes
Forecasters
15
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleMar 9, 25, 4:35 AM UTCJun 2, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
For the purposes of this market, a "major candidate" is defined as any candidate who, at any point during the race, had a polling average of at least 10%.
- In previous years, according to realclearpolling.com, the candidates who would have met this criteria were:
- 2024: Donald Trump, the named outcome, the named outcome
- 2020: Donald Trump
- 2016: Donald Trump, the named outcome, Ben Carson, John Kasich, the named outcome, Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, Carly Fiorina, Rand Paul
- 2012: Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Rick Perry, Herman Cain, Ron Paul, Michele Bachmann