What are the current odds for When will a woman win the Republican Primaries??

Manifold Markets prices 2036 at 11.2% as of October 20, 2026.

How is When will a woman win the Republican Primaries? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution Criteria

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

Other 68.1%

Leader of 5 outcomes

Forecasters

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

7d Change

0.0 pts

Market data

Updated 14 hours ago

Stale

Feb 10, 25, 9:21 PM UTCDec 18, 60, 1:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to the first year listed (2028, 2032, or 2036) in which a woman wins the Republican presidential primary process and becomes the party's nominee.
Resolution will be based on the official Republican National Convention nomination.
The market will resolve N/A if:
No woman wins the Republican nomination in any of the listed years
The Republican Party ceases to exist or fundamentally changes its nomination process