Who will be First Minister of Scotland at some point in their life?
Politics
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Stephen Flynn 52%Leader of 11 outcomes
Forecasters
10
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleMay 8, 24, 1:23 PM UTCDec 31, 50, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Add your own answers.
- Any option resolves YES when that person is officially sworn in as First Minister, and resolves NO if that person dies.
- This is about leading the Scottish Government.
- If the title changes, I'll edit the market.
- If Scotland gains independence, market stays open and options can still resolve YES.
- If an independent Scotland does something weird like introduce a president, this market becomes about the role that I think is closest to the current "First Minister" role.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who will be First Minister of Scotland at some point in their life??
- Manifold Markets prices Stephen Flynn at 52% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Who will be First Minister of Scotland at some point in their life? resolve?
- Who will be First Minister of Scotland at some point in their life? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2050.
- How is Who will be First Minister of Scotland at some point in their life? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Add your own answers.