Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastTed Budd (R-NC) 78.1%Leader of 34 outcomes
Forecasters
3
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleSep 24, 26, 7:20 AM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market tracks whether specific U.S. Senators run for re-election in the 2028 U.S. Senate elections.
- Each answer (representing an individual Senator) will resolve independently:
- YES: If the Senator officially files paperwork (e.g., FEC Form 2 Statement of Candidacy or state-level equivalent) to run for re-election to the U.S. Senate in 2028, and they remain an active candidate up until their state's official filing deadline.
- NO: If the Senator publicly announces their retirement, declares their candidacy for a different office (in states where they cannot run for multiple offices) instead of the Senate, or fails to file for re-election by their state’s official filing deadline.
- NO: If the Senator resigns, passes away, is removed from office, or otherwise leaves office before the filing deadline and is thus not a sitting Senator seeking re-election during the 2028 cycle.
