Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastPi is Transcendental 99.2%+0.2ptLeader of 18 outcomes
Forecasters
37
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+1.6 pts
Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Apr 13, 25, 8:42 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Lean mathlib contain more than 10 million lines of code by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Kevin Buzzard successfully fulfill his grant specs of formalizing Fermat's Last Theorem in Lean within 5 years?
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Manifold MarketsWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRules
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES for each theorem that is formally proven in Lean by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM UTC.
- A theorem is considered "formally proven" when a complete, verified proof exists in the Lean theorem prover's main library or in a publicly accessible repository that has been merged or accepted by the Lean community.
- Lean is an open-source theorem prover and programming language.
- It allows mathematicians to formally verify proofs of mathematical theorems using computer assistance.
- The Lean Mathematical Library (mathlib) is a community-driven effort to formalize mathematics in Lean.
Open markets
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.0pt94%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+15.3pt47%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $256.6K
- 24h Vol
- $140.5K
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 more outcomes
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 2028-1.0pt12%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $33.3M
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2030+71.0pt92%
- Before 2032+44.0pt92%
- Before 2028+44.0pt59%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $6K
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 more outcomes
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- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
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- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which theorems will be officially formally proven in Lean by the end of 2028??
- Manifold Markets prices Pi is Transcendental at 99% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Which theorems will be officially formally proven in Lean by the end of 2028? resolve?
- Which theorems will be officially formally proven in Lean by the end of 2028? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2028.
- How is Which theorems will be officially formally proven in Lean by the end of 2028? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution Criteria