Current community forecast
Yes 66.6%
Forecasters
41
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleJan 1, 26, 2:24 PM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Kevin Buzzard successfully fulfill his grant specs of formalizing Fermat's Last Theorem in Lean within 5 years?
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KalshiAI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
PolymarketRules
This question resolves based on the total number of lines of code (LOC) in the Lean mathlib repository.
- As of late 2025, mathlib contains approximately 2.1 million lines of code across roughly 8,000 files.
- Over the past two years, growth has been approximately linear, which (if extrapolated) would not reach 10 million LOC by 2030.
- Therefore, a “Yes” outcome implies a substantial acceleration in the rate of formalization, potentially driven by improved tooling, automation, or AI-assisted proof generation.
- Resolution criterion: This question resolves Yes if the official mathlib statistics report more than 10,000,000 total lines of code at any point on or before December 31, 2030.
- Otherwise, it resolves No.
Open markets
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+3 more outcomes
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- 24h Vol
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- Guyana Amazon Warriors-3.0pt60.4%
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- 24h Vol
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KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+43.0pt99%
- Houston+70.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+17.0pt99%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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- 80° to 81°+53.0pt95.2%
- 79° or below-2.0pt1%
- 82° to 83°-45.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $69,000 or above99%
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+47 more outcomes
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- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+7.0pt34.3%
- 160-179+2.0pt23.8%
- 200-219-1.0pt19.1%
+23 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Lean mathlib contain more than 10 million lines of code by 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 67% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Lean mathlib contain more than 10 million lines of code by 2030? resolve?
- Will Lean mathlib contain more than 10 million lines of code by 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.
- How is Will Lean mathlib contain more than 10 million lines of code by 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This question resolves based on the total number of lines of code (LOC) in the Lean mathlib repository.