Which states will report local cases in the May 2026 Ebola Bundibugyo outbreak
Health & MedicineOne-OffGeopoliticsScience6mo
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Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 4:00 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastAny EU country 100%Leader of 12 outcomes
Forecasters
11
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
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Updated 10 hours ago
StaleMay 19, 26, 9:46 AM UTCApr 29, 27, 10:59 PM UTC
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KalshiRules
Outbreak currently in DR Congo and Uganda.
- States resolve YES when their health authorities or WHO reports a local case and resolve NO when the outbreak is declared over by WHO / Africa CDC.
- People who are transferred with a suspected or confirmed infection for treatment to another state under medical supervision are excluded (e.g. western states repatriating their infected citizens does not resolve, a person travelling who is already infected but without being already suspected and is diagnosed in their destination does resolve)
- Cases confirmed to be from a different outbreak do not count.
- Close date will be extended, until the outbreak is declared over.
- Some background: https://www.science.org/content/article/scientists-play-catch-startling-ebola-outbreak
