Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastOther 32.8%+30.4ptLeader of 11 outcomes
Forecasters
4
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+30.4 pts
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleOct 31, 26, 9:24 AM UTCNov 3, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
This market will resolve according to which of the United States Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special election), and Texas, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, are won by the Republican candidate, inclusive of any potential runoffs.
- Each listed outcome names the exact set of these states in which the Republican candidate wins.
- An outcome will resolve to "Yes" only if the Republican candidate wins every state it names and does not win any of the other states covered by this market.
- A state counts as not won by the Republican candidate if any other candidate wins it, including a Democratic, independent, or third-party candidate, or if its results cannot be determined by March 31, 2027.
- A candidate will be considered to represent the Republican Party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of the Republican Party.
- Candidates who run as independents will not be considered to represent the Republican Party regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
