Swing states of the future: Which states will be within 5 points in the 2040 presidential election?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Swing states of the future: Which states will be within 5 points in the 2040 presidential election??

Manifold Markets prices Pennsylvania at 70% as of November 1, 2026.

When does Swing states of the future: Which states will be within 5 points in the 2040 presidential election? resolve?

Swing states of the future: Which states will be within 5 points in the 2040 presidential election? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2041.

How is Swing states of the future: Which states will be within 5 points in the 2040 presidential election? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves to all states where the margin of victory in the 2040 POTUS election is less than 5%.

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POLYMARKET

Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?

• None+2.0pt25%
• IA, KS-1.0pt12%
• IA-0.2pt11%

+125 more outcomes

Total Vol

$20.7M

24h Vol

$8.6M

KALSHI

2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?

• Democrats sweep70.5%
• D-House, R-Senate26.5%
• Republicans sweep+1.2pt6.6%

KALSHI

Texas Senate winner?

• James Talarico-2.0pt69.5%
• Ken Paxton+2.0pt31.5%

Total Vol

$63.8M

24h Vol

$5M

KALSHI

Who will control the House?

• Democratic Party-0.4pt93.2%
• Republican Party+0.6pt6.8%

Total Vol

$90.4M

24h Vol

$3.8M

POLYMARKET

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

• Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.3pt16%
• Gavin Newsom+0.1pt16%
• Jon Ossoff-0.3pt15%

+50 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Which party will win the House in 2026?

• Democratic Party94.1%
• Republican Party5.9%

Total Vol

$35.2M

24h Vol

$1.6M

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