Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastDemocrats 67.9%+3.7pt
Forecasters
21
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 21 minutes ago
Feb 5, 26, 4:58 AMNov 3, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Democrats68%
Compare venues· Democrats
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manifold MarketsThis page | — | 68% | — | — | — | 21 minutes ago | |
 PredictIt80% match · verified | — | 60% | — | — | — | 21 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on PredictIt
Which party will win the 2026 election for governor of Iowa?
10mo
60%
39%
Retail prediction exchange
PREDICTITRules
Resolves to the winner.
- Resolves on media reporting and official results.
- Trump won the state by 13.2% in 2024.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$178Jul 95d of dataJul 28
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Resolves to the winner.
- Resolves on media reporting and official results.
- Trump won the state by 13.2% in 2024.