Which party will win the 2028 U.S. House election in Arizona's 1st District?
21.2 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastDemocratic Party 61.6%+21.2ptLeader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
1
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+21.2 pts
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Nov 6, 26, 1:02 AM UTCNov 8, 28, 12:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which party will win the 2028 U.S. House election in Arizona's 6th District?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will win the 2028 U.S. Senate election in Arizona?
Manifold Markets2028 Presidential Election: Arizona Winner
PolymarketWhich party will win the 2028 presidential election in Arizona?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will win the 2028 presidential election in Arizona?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will win the House in 2028?
PolymarketRules
Resolves to the party that wins the November 7, 2028 U.S. House election in Arizona's 1st District: whichever district is numbered 1 on the map in effect for that election.
- N/A if that map has no district numbered 1.
- Only the party matters: a Democratic or Republican nominee counts as that party even if also listed on other parties' lines.
- Anyone else resolves to Other, or to their own answer if one has been added.
- Resolves on the certified result, or earlier once the AP has called the race and no recount could change it.
- N/A if no election for this seat is held.
