Which party will win the 2026 U.S. House election in Arizona's 4th District?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2026 US Midterms21d
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastDemocratic Party — Greg Stanton 97%Leader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
3
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-0.2 pts
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleOct 6, 26, 5:38 AM UTCNov 4, 26, 12:00 PM UTC
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ForecastExRules
This market resolves to the party of the winner of the 2026 election for U.S. Representative for Arizona's 4th congressional district — the term beginning January 3, 2027.
- Which round counts: the November 3, 2026 general election (plurality winner).
- Primaries do not count.
- Party rule: the winner's party is the party on whose line or with whose party designation they appear on the official general-election ballot.
- A candidate nominated by Democratic Party or Republican Party who also appears on other parties' lines (fusion) counts as that party's candidate.
- Candidates who are independent, have no party preference, or belong to any other party resolve to "the named outcome", even if they say they would caucus with a major party.
