Which party will win New Mexico in the 2028 presidential election?
8.7 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElectionLatin America2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastDemocratic Party 86.3%+8.7ptLeader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
1
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+8.7 pts
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Nov 6, 26, 12:40 AM UTCNov 8, 28, 12:00 PM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves to the party of the presidential ticket that gets New Mexico's electoral votes in the November 7, 2028 election, however New Mexico awards them: by its own vote, by the national popular vote under an interstate compact, or any other way.
- If electoral votes are replaced by another system, it follows whatever say New Mexico has in that system; N/A if it has none.
- Only the party matters: a ticket on the Democratic or Republican line counts as that party even if also listed on other parties' lines.
- Any other ticket resolves to Other, or to its own answer if one has been added.
- Resolves on the electors New Mexico certifies, or earlier once the AP has called the state and nothing could change it.
- If those electors are split between tickets, it resolves to each party in proportion to its share of them.
