Which parties will become part of the Russian Parliament (State Duma) after the 2026 elections?
PoliticsOne-OffElectionGeopoliticsRussia / Ukraine21dManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastUnited Russia 96.5%Leader of 11 outcomes
Forecasters
13
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleJul 28, 26, 6:46 AM UTCSep 29, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
This market will resolve to the set of political parties that secure at least one seat in the 2026 Russian State Duma (9th convocation) through the federal party‑list proportional representation system only.
- Single‑member constituency wins are not considered for this market.
- The election is scheduled for September 18–20, 2026.
- Under Russian law, 225 of the 450 Duma seats are allocated via proportional representation, with a 5% electoral threshold.
- A party becomes part of the parliament if and only if it receives 5% or more of the valid votes cast in the federal party‑list vote, thereby qualifying for seat allocation.
- Parties that do not reach the 5% threshold, parties that are not on the final certified ballot, or parties that win only single‑member districts (which are excluded from this market) do not count as becoming part of the parliament for resolution purposes.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which parties will become part of the Russian Parliament (State Duma) after the 2026 elections??
- Manifold Markets prices United Russia at 97% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Which parties will become part of the Russian Parliament (State Duma) after the 2026 elections? resolve?
- Which parties will become part of the Russian Parliament (State Duma) after the 2026 elections? is scheduled to resolve on September 29, 2026.
- How is Which parties will become part of the Russian Parliament (State Duma) after the 2026 elections? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to the set of political parties that secure at least one seat in the 2026 Russian State Duma (9th convocation) through the federal party‑list proportional representation system only.