When will the US enact a universal basic income of at least $500/month per adult?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for When will the US enact a universal basic income of at least $500/month per adult??

Manifold Markets prices Not by the end of 2050 at 75.1% as of October 26, 2026.

When does When will the US enact a universal basic income of at least $500/month per adult? resolve?

When will the US enact a universal basic income of at least $500/month per adult? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2051.

How is When will the US enact a universal basic income of at least $500/month per adult? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves to the calendar-year bucket (Eastern Time) in which the US enacts a federal universal basic income, as defined below.

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POLYMARKET

Fed Decision in October?

• No change-3.0pt92%
• 25 bps increase+2.0pt8%
• 25 bps decrease-0.1pt0%

+2 more outcomes

Total Vol

$71.2M

24h Vol

$7.2M

KALSHI

CPI in October

• Above 0.0%99%
• Above -0.1%-1.0pt99%
• Above 0.1%+1.0pt90.5%

POLYMARKET

US economic state at the end of 2026?

• Overheating+2.9pt98%
• Soft Landing-2.6pt2%
• Slack-0.1pt0%

+1 more outcomes

KALSHI

Core CPI YoY in November

• Above 2.0%98.5%
• Above 2.2%98.5%
• Above 2.3%98.5%

KALSHI

Argentina inflation rate MoM for October

• Above 1.0%99.5%
• Above 1.2%97%
• Above 1.4%93.5%

POLYMARKET

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

• 5.3%+8.0pt46%
• 5.4%+1.0pt23%
• 5.5%-0.8pt13%

+11 more outcomes

• Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
• CPI-U index in October
• Core CPI YoY in December
• October Inflation US - Annual
• Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
• How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
• How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
• Brazil Annual Inflation 2026
• PPI YoY in October
• CPI in December
• October Inflation US - Monthly