Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastBy end of 2050 80%Leader of 13 outcomes
Forecasters
15
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleApr 4, 26, 10:08 AM UTCDec 31, 50, 10:53 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Victoria, Australia legislate to replace Stamp Duty (property sales tax) with a land value tax before 2027?
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PolymarketWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketRules
Each answer resolves YES if, by 31 December of the stated year, legislation has received Royal Assent that directly mandates a new voting system for UK House of Commons General Elections, replacing First Past the Post.
- Otherwise it resolves NO when that date passes.
- Qualifying voting systems:
- Any of the following systems, or any hybrid system incorporating one of them:
- ∙ Single Transferable Vote (STV)
- ∙ Mixed Member Proportional / Additional Member System (MMP/AMS)
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+2.0pt76%
- New People (NL)-1.9pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)2%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $31.3M
- 24h Vol
- $1.1M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.9%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez15.8%
- Gavin Newsom-1.0pt13.7%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $219.7M
- 24h Vol
- $802.3K
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+3.0pt88.1%
- Republican Party-2.0pt11.9%
- Total Vol
- $31.9M
- 24h Vol
- $720.1K
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez18%
- Gavin Newsom-0.2pt16%
- Jon Ossoff+0.3pt16%
+48 more outcomes
POLYMARKETPutin out as President of Russia by which date?
- June 30, 2027+1.0pt14%
- December-1.0pt5%
- July0%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep+5.0pt56.9%
- D-House, R-Senate31.4%
- Republicans sweep-3.0pt10.8%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Texas Senate winner?
- Brazil Presidential Election
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Florida Governor winner?
- Next French Presidential Election
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Nebraska Senate winner?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will the UK legislate to replace FPTP for general elections??
- Manifold Markets prices By end of 2050 at 80% as of September 17, 2026.
- When does When will the UK legislate to replace FPTP for general elections? resolve?
- When will the UK legislate to replace FPTP for general elections? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2050.
- How is When will the UK legislate to replace FPTP for general elections? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Each answer resolves YES if, by 31 December of the stated year, legislation has received Royal Assent that directly mandates a new voting system for UK House of Commons General Elections, replacing First Past the Post.