What proportion of people born in the year X will still be alive in the year 3000?
One-OffScienceSociety & Culture
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Born in 2030 21.9%Leader of 9 outcomes
Forecasters
24
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleJan 2, 24, 4:47 PM UTCJan 1, 00, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Each answer resolves to PROB, where PROB is the proportion of people that were born in the specified year that are still alive on 1 Jan 3000.
- They don't have to be basic unmodified humans, but there should be a wide agreement that yeah, that person is still alive in some form.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for What proportion of people born in the year X will still be alive in the year 3000??
- Manifold Markets prices Born in 2030 at 22% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does What proportion of people born in the year X will still be alive in the year 3000? resolve?
- What proportion of people born in the year X will still be alive in the year 3000? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 3000.
- How is What proportion of people born in the year X will still be alive in the year 3000? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Each answer resolves to PROB, where PROB is the proportion of people that were born in the specified year that are still alive on 1 Jan 3000.