Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 56.2%
Forecasters
32
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleOct 13, 22, 4:59 AM UTCJan 1, 00, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the Clay Mathematics Institute formally recognize OpenAI's Navier-Stokes solution as correct before 2029?
Manifold MarketsIf I switch majors from Finance to Applied Mathematics, will I regret it in May 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill an AI co-author a mathematics research paper published in a reputable journal before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsIs Earth flat?
PolymarketUS test scores in Reading in 2026?
KalshiWill Duke University rank first overall in 2027?
ForecastExRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
SciencePOLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31-0.7pt4%
- September 30-0.2pt1%
- April 300%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $68.2M
- 24h Vol
- $124.4K
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt21%
- Before 2028+1.0pt13%
- Before 2027-0.2pt5%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $33.9M
KALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 203580%
- Before 2030-9.1pt62%
- Before 2029-7.9pt17%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $311.2K
POLYMARKETWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- 1-2.0pt74.8%
- 2+0.5pt24.2%
- 3-0.1pt1%
+3 more outcomes
KALSHIWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Yes-2.2pt73%
- No27%
- Total Vol
- $348K
- 24h Vol
- $1.4K
KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0+7.0pt39%
- Above 1+4.0pt18%
- Above 2-2.0pt4%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- When will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem?
- AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
- Is Earth flat?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will be solved next?
- When will the Hodge Conjecture be resolved?
- When will nuclear fusion be achieved?
- When will Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer be resolved?
- US solar capacity installed in 2026
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Was mathematics created (YES) or discovered (NO)??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 56% as of September 17, 2026.
- When does Was mathematics created (YES) or discovered (NO)? resolve?
- Was mathematics created (YES) or discovered (NO)? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2100.