Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 84.8%
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11
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Forecast
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Updated 23 minutes ago
Mar 30, 25, 10:38 PM UTCJan 20, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
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Rules
This question resolves as Yes if, before January 20, 2029, the United States recognizes the Republic of China (hereafter Taiwan) as a de jure sovereign state.
- This considered to have happened if at least one of the following occurs:
- The US President issues a statement that the US formally recognizes Taiwan as a sovereign and/or independent state.
- For example, a statement similar to President Barack Obama's statement of July 9, 2011 recognizing the Republic of South Sudan or President Joe Biden's statement of September 25, 2023 recognizing Niue would count.
- The US appoints an ambassador to Taiwan and/or accepts an ambassador from Taiwan.
- The head of mission must be formally credentialed as an ambassador per the 1961 Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations (pdf), not a "liaison officer," "chargé d'affaires," or other lower level or non-official diplomatic ranking.
