Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 27, 2026, 3:40 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 65%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated yesterday
StaleMay 6, 25, 8:17 PM UTCJan 21, 29, 1:00 AM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
This market predicts whether the U.S. House of Representatives will pass articles of impeachment against President Donald Trump before January 20, 2029.
- Recent developments include Rep. Shri Thanedar introducing seven articles of impeachment on April 28, 2025, though they are considered largely symbolic due to Republican control of both chambers.
- The market resolves to 'Yes' if the House passes any articles of impeachment against Trump before the specified date; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'.